Why a Taiwan attack would be a very big problem for China
Actually, Xina has very different and much bigger problems than the Taiwan situation and the problems that an attack would produce additionally. However, it is questionable whether Xi wants to know any of this. He no longer has any feedback or challenging input. And what a lone ruler without any elasticity around his own narratives can do, we can read in the history books.
Since 2000, Chinese labor costs have increased 14-fold.
Mexico now costs a third of that.
The education system produces relatively little innovation and skill because it is based primarily on rote learning and both creativity and independence are a thorn in the regime's side. Without the extremely generous interpretation of global patent and innovation protection rules, there would be shockingly little progress.
China cannot secure its own supply channels (mainly by ship) alone and completely. For this it also needs the USA. In the event of an attack on Taiwan and set Russia-like sanctions were taken, global trade from China would be toast.
Partly because of this dependence on the sea route, Xina is pushing the expansion of the new Silk Road and chortling on the Asian sea routes, happily with musket at the ready.
Depending on how the Russian war of annihilation in Ukraine and the relationship between China and Russia develops, Xi will not get his people sufficiently fed.
China is mainly an importer of food and energy; these are huge dependencies. And who is going to supply these huge quantities?
High tech is (still) produced in China, but the Chinese themselves are not (yet) able to match the quality and output of Taiwan, Japan and soon times Vietnam.
Maybe they will never catch up, the others are not sleeping either.
The West must and will rely on more reliable and less expensive trading partners.
This will not do the Chinese economy any good, with massive global shifts but above all enormous national hardships.
This is another reason Xi is stiffening on paranoid nationalism and repression.
If the promise of prosperity collapses, that is Xi's only card, and the global community would do well to consider today what that might mean.
The demographic problem is exacerbated again as we now know that China has misreported and miscalculated the baby boomers, there are 100 million younger people missing from the statistics and in the bill to support the old.
Health is another problem. Obesity, smoking, poor network, unhealthy lifestyles and circumstances, etc.
So what would a Taiwan invasion change or improve about these problems? It would rather massively increase the battery of problems for China.
Unless the annexation of Taiwan is one of Xi's building blocks to cement the aforementioned radical nationalism. The last attempts to distract from catastrophic economy and public mayhem with similar strategies produced a lot of suffering for millions and no positive impulses in the world.
Let's hope that the lonely Mr. Xi is vividly aware of this.
